ࡱ> '` R>2bjbj2` RRRRRRRfoooo4ofː2pppppp"p p2444444$he@X-RpppppXRRpppRpRp2p2:ڄ,RRbpp ()ox^ 0ːR~bRb<pppppppXXFpppːppppfff7 <3fff <fffRRRRRR ~f[NNUxXxvzuW{QeHhN0W{Qvhcc,gf[yZW[vtW@xT|~vNwƋwQ gNNyf[xvz]\ObrzbN蕀b/g]\OvR0~f[NNe(WW{Q^21N~>yO~NmSU\ wQ go}Yv``T_0>yOS_TLNS_ W@xtNb[ |~cc~f[NNvW,gtTNwƋTb v^q~^(u{:g q~ccNY (WT~{t0T{|ONNUSMONN^:Wx0[0Oo`Yt0bDRg0Θi{t0QV{RgI{[E]\O NS(Wؚ!h0yxNNYef[Txvzv[ gRe|^yvxvz'`ؚB\!kNMb0N0xvzeT>yO~Nm~pet~ё~NΘi{tLNuNkSu~]N~pencccN:ghVf[`N N0f[`Nt^P ,gNNf[6R:N3t^0f[u(WhQf[6Rt^PQcMROnYef[Rĉ[v zTf[R &{TkNagN ~ybQScMR1t^kN0(WOt^PQ f[u cgqNNYef[RvBl Onĉ[vf[RsS_kNDyO[ >yO[[c(W,{4-5f[g e3-6*Ng0eQf[MR] gNt^N N]\O~Svf[uSN3uMQO>yO[ FOcNv^f0MQO>yO[vf[u^fY0WSRyx[ v^cNv^yxbg02.yx[ f[u(W!hg ^ygۏLyx;mR \o_f[/gxvz dSR[^@bNNvxvzyvY ؏^SR!hQ0Y~~vN\N10!kvf[/g;mR kXQyx[bJTU_Q03.eShkNeT{MR(WlQ_ Rirck R NrzSh\N{3000W[N N,gNNxvzWQvf[/ge04.-Ng8h-Ng8h/f(Wxvzu zf[`NW,g~_gKNT e_KNMR NxvzuvW{QR:NOnc [xvzuvf[`Nb~0?el``0yxRI{ebۏLvN!k~T8h0xvzu-Ng8h]\O(W,{ Nf[g+g[b wQSO z^vsQĉ[0N0kNeNf[MOcN kNev ^&{T,gNNvyrp0e 0_0Q\OGW^(W[^c[ NۏL0ǏeT{TeS3uUxXf[MO0eT{Tf[MO3u z^vsQĉ[0 ,gNNcNtf[UxXf[MOb~Nmf[UxXf[MO0~f[NNUxXxvzuYef[Rb|~f[b f[y{|tf[b~Nmf[ N~f[y ~f[{| +R z T y,{Nf[g,{Nf[g,{ Nf[g_USMOY lf[ef[Rf[ef[Rf[ef[R_OlQqQ,{NY802802Y|,  ` v 0 H R`JRz|8:ŸŸŭŭrerZhvhoXOJQJhoXCJOJQJaJo(hvhoXCJOJQJaJo("h]sYhoX5CJ OJQJaJ o(h|qjhCJOJQJo(hCJOJQJo(hoXCJOJQJo(hC5CJOJQJo(h|qjhoXCJOJQJo(h|qjhoXCJQJ^JaJo(h|qjhoX5CJOJQJo(hkczhoXCJ aJ o(#,    . @ J ^ ` n . 0 H dp`gdoXdpWD`gdoX & FdpgdoXdpWD`gdoXdpgdoX$a$gdoX>2 4 $:R`dpWD`gdoXdpgdoX dp`gdoXdpWD`gdoXhdpWD`hgd(dpWD&`(gdoX =dp`=gdoXJ|~dpgdoX dp`gdoXdpWD`gdoX0:JT^hnt~$d$Ifa$gdoX$dp$Ifa$gdoX =dp`=gdoX $dpa$gdoXdpgdoX:<>@BDFHJRT\^fh~(("($(.(6(F(J(N(\(^(l(p(~((((((((õèè՘՘՘Uh3hoXCJOJQJaJh3hoXCJOJQJaJo(hvhoX@OJQJhvhoX@OJQJo(#hvhoX@CJOJQJaJo(hvhoXOJQJhvhoXCJOJQJaJhvhoXCJOJQJaJo(5~kd$$If94(֞,F!H 2dcrA t0!2 2  44 9aytoX dp$IfgdoXFf$d$Ifa$gdoX$dp$Ifa$gdoX(($(*(.(0(2(4(6(F(H(J(L(N(^(`(Ff dp$IfgdoXFfz$dp$Ifa$gdoX-NVyrr>yO;NINtN[xvz362lKQ`;NINf[b6qli181lKQ`;NINf[btf[ lKQ`;NINN>yOyf[el181lKQ`;NINf[b~Nmf[ NNW@x-N~[‰~Nmf[483~Nmf[b-N~_‰~Nmf[483~Nmf[bؚI{is644~f[bؚI{pet~644~f[bNN^(uVR_Rg483~f[bYCQ~Rg483~f[be^RRg483~f[bb7hg483~f[bϑ~Nmf[483~f[b O^Spe~322~f[bSe~322~f[bKmtNel322~f[b~{NoN^(u322~f[bё~322~f[buX[Rg322~f[bpenccc322~f[bЏy{f[322~f[b~Nm~NVl~Nm8h{322~f[b[322~f[bbD~322~f[bf[yMRlNNNe.s 322~f[b_Os>yO[4-5f[gyx[1-5f[geSh1-5f[g-Ng8h,{4f[gk N e5-6f[geO z TI{f[RTf[yvxvzu eQf[TeO,gy6kNNW@x Nf[R0DU_~f[NNUxXxvzu͑pfNv׋~gI{W ؚI{pet~ SNؚI{YeQHr>y 2011H ^z[W ؚI{pet~f[ [_-NVyb'Yf[QHr>y 2011QX͖I{W b7hg--t0elN[ Nwm Nwmyf[b/gQHr>y 1996s/TNSW uX[penc~Rg SNyf[QHr>y 2007Michael steinbach W penccc[ SN:gh]NQHr>y 2011UOfNCQW ^(ue^RRg SN SN'Yf[QHr>y 2011Peter J.Brockwell I{W e^RNKm SNNl5uQHr>y 20104TUKNI{W ^Spe~ SN-NV~QHr>y 2011׋~gW Se~ SN-NV~QHr>y 2008George CasellaI{W ~ce SN:gh]NQHr>y 2012H ^z[I{W ^Spe~ W/Oyr~ I{W W@x~f[ SNyf[QHr>y 2003Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (series B)Journal of the American Statistical AssociationAnnals of StatisticsJournal of Econometrics`(b(h(l(n(p((((((((((((((((((($d$Ifa$gdoXFf dp$IfgdoXFf$dp$Ifa$gdoX(((((())))))8)<)D)J)L)N)h)l)v)z)|)~))))))))))))))))***(*,*6*:*B*H*L*V*Z*d*h*p*v*z*****ַַַ֥֥#h3hoX@CJOJQJaJo(hvhoXCJOJQJaJhvhoXCJOJQJaJo(hvhoXOJQJh3hoXCJOJQJaJo(h3hoXCJOJQJaJ;(())))))))))*),).)4)8):)<)F)H)J)L)N)Z)`)Ff dp$IfgdoXFf4$dp$Ifa$gdoX`)d)f)h)j)l)v)x)z)|)~))))))))))))))))Ff" dp$IfgdoXFf$dp$Ifa$gdoX)))))))))))))*********(***,*2*Ff* dp$IfgdoXFf&$dp$Ifa$gdoX2*6*8*:*D*F*H*J*L*V*X*Z*`*d*f*h*r*t*v*x*z******Ff2 dp$IfgdoXFf.$dp$Ifa$gdoX**************************FfO: dp$IfgdoXFf|6$dp$Ifa$gdoX************ +++"+*+.+0+<+B+D+X+\+d+f+r+x+z++++++++++++++++++++++ ,,,,$,*,,,H,L,P,R,^,d,f,t,x,|,~,,,,,,,,,,,,h3hoXCJOJQJaJh3hoXCJOJQJaJo(hvhoXOJQJhvhoXCJOJQJo(N***+ ++++"+$+&+(+*+0+4+>+@+B+D+X+Z+\+^+`+f+j+FfA dp$IfgdoXFf=$dp$Ifa$gdoXj+t+v+x+z+++++++++++++++++++++FfH dp$IfgdoXFf;E$dp$Ifa$gdoX++++++++++++++ , ,,,,,,&,(,*,,,FfSFf'P dp$IfgdoX$dp$Ifa$gdoXFfL,,D,F,H,J,L,R,V,`,b,d,f,p,r,t,v,x,~,,,,,,,,,Ff[FfoW$dp$Ifa$gdoX dp$IfgdoX,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,- - --Ff[b dp$IfgdoXFf^$dp$Ifa$gdoX,,,,,,,-- ----$-(-2-6-8-B-D-P-R-T-^-`-j-l-----------. ...ȸӨȚ}oh3hoXCJOJQJo(hoX5CJOJQJo(h3hoX5CJOJQJo(hvhoXOJQJaJo(hvhoXOJQJ^JaJo(hvhoXCJOJQJaJo(hvhoXOJQJhvhoXCJOJQJo(h3hoXCJOJQJaJo(h3hoXCJOJQJaJ(---&-(-4-PA5AA dp$IfgdoX$dp$Ifa$gdoXkdd$$If94d\,!H kA t0!2 2  44 9aytoX4-6-8-B-D-P-PA5AA dp$IfgdoX$dp$Ifa$gdoXkde$$If94S\,!H kA t0!2 2  44 9aytoXP-R-T-^-`-j-PA5AA dp$IfgdoX$dp$Ifa$gdoXkdwf$$If94S\,!H kA t0!2 2  44 9aytoXj-l----PAAA$dp$Ifa$gdoXkdeg$$If94S\,!H kA t0!2 2  44 9aytoX----eVJ dp$IfgdoX$dp$Ifa$gdoXkdSh$$If9dF!0kA t0!    2 2  44 9aytoX---.J.../j//0@0x0|ttiiiiiiiii & FdpgdoXdpgdoXkd#i$$If9d0,!H t0!2 44 9aytoX ..0011111 2 2:2<2>2h3h3hoXCJOJQJh3hoXCJOJQJo(hoXCJOJQJo(x000111 2<2>2 & FdpgdoX0182P. A!"#$%S =$$If!vh5H5 525d5c5r5A#vH#v #v2#vd#vc#vr#vA:V 94( t0!++++,5H5 525d5c5r5A2 2  4 9ytoX$$If!v h5H5 5555555 r5 A#vH#v #v#v#v#v#v#v r#v A:V 94 t0!++++ , 5H5 555555 r5 A/ 2 2  4 9ytoX>kd?$$If94 ,Fj!H rA t0!((((2 2  44 9aytoXx$$If!v h555 555555 5 r5 A#v#v #v#v#v#v#v #v r#v A:V 94S t0!++, 55 55555 5 r5 A2 2 2  4 9ytoXmkd$$If94S ,Fj! rA t0!,,,,2 2 2  44 9aytoX$$If!v h555 555555 5 r5 A#v#v #v#v#v#v#v #v r#v A:V 94d t0!++, 55 55555 5 r5 A2 2 2  4 9pytoXkd$$If94d ,Fj! rA t0!,,,,2 2 2  44 9apytoX$$If!v h555 555555 5 r5 A#v#v #v#v#v#v#v #v r#v A:V 94 t0!++, 55 55555 5 r5 A2 2 2  4 9p2ytoXkd$$If94 ,Fj! rA t0!,,,,2 2 2  44 9ap2ytoX$$If!v h555 555555 5 r5 A#v#v #v#v#v#v#v #v r#v A:V 94 t0!++, 55 55555 5 r5 A2 2 2  4 9p2ytoXkdg$$If94 ,Fj! rA t0!,,,,2 2 2  44 9ap2ytoXx$$If!v h555 555555 5 r5 A#v#v #v#v#v#v#v #v r#v A:V 94S t0!++, 55 55555 5 r5 A2 2 2  4 9ytoXmkd$$If94S ,Fj! rA t0!,,,,2 2 2  44 9aytoXx$$If!v h555 555555 5 r5 A#v#v #v#v#v#v#v #v r#v A:V 94S t0!++, 55 55555 5 r5 A2 2 2  4 9ytoXmkd$$If94S ,Fj! rA t0!,,,,2 2 2  44 9aytoXx$$If!v h555 555555 5 r5 A#v#v #v#v#v#v#v #v r#v A:V 94d t0!++, 55 55555 5 r5 A2 2 2  4 9ytoXmkd$$If94d ,Fj! rA t0!,,,,2 2 2  44 9aytoXx$$If!v h555 555555 5 r5 A#v#v #v#v#v#v#v #v r#v A:V 94S t0!++, 55 55555 5 r5 A2 2 2  4 9ytoXmkdu!$$If94S ,Fj! rA t0!,,,,2 2 2  44 9aytoXx$$If!v h555 555555 5 r5 A#v#v #v#v#v#v#v #v r#v A:V 94d t0!++, 55 55555 5 r5 A2 2 2  4 9ytoXmkd^%$$If94d ,Fj! rA t0!,,,,2 2 2  44 9aytoXx$$If!v h555 555555 5 r5 A#v#v #v#v#v#v#v #v r#v A:V 94S t0!++, 55 55555 5 r5 A2 2 2  4 9ytoXmkdG)$$If94S ,Fj! rA t0!,,,,2 2 2  44 9aytoXx$$If!v h555 555555 5 r5 A#v#v #v#v#v#v#v #v r#v A:V 94d t0!++, 55 55555 5 r5 A2 2 2  4 9ytoXmkd0-$$If94d ,Fj! rA t0!,,,,2 2 2  44 9aytoXx$$If!v h555 555555 5 r5 A#v#v #v#v#v#v#v #v r#v A:V 94d t0!++, 55 55555 5 r5 A2 2 2  4 9ytoXmkd1$$If94d ,Fj! rA t0!,,,,2 2 2  44 9aytoXx$$If!v h555 555555 5 r5 A#v#v #v#v#v#v#v #v r#v A:V 94S t0!++, 55 55555 5 r5 A2 2 2  4 9ytoXmkd5$$If94S ,Fj! rA t0!,,,,2 2 2  44 9aytoXb$$If!v h5H5 5555555 r5 A#vH#v #v#v#v#v#v#v r#v A:V 94d t0!+, 5H5 555555 r5 A2 2  4 9ytoX>kd8$$If94d ,Fj!H rA t0!((((2 2  44 9aytoXb$$If!v h5H5 5555555 r5 A#vH#v #v#v#v#v#v#v r#v A:V 94S t0!+, 5H5 555555 r5 A2 2  4 9ytoX>kd<$$If94S ,Fj!H rA t0!((((2 2  44 9aytoXb$$If!v h5H5 5555555 r5 A#vH#v #v#v#v#v#v#v r#v A:V 94d t0!+, 5H5 555555 r5 A2 2  4 9ytoX>kd3@$$If94d ,Fj!H rA t0!((((2 2  44 9aytoXb$$If!v h5H5 5555555 r5 A#vH#v #v#v#v#v#v#v r#v A:V 94S t0!+, 5H5 555555 r5 A2 2  4 9ytoX>kdC$$If94S ,Fj!H rA t0!((((2 2  44 9aytoXb$$If!v h5H5 5555555 r5 A#vH#v #v#v#v#v#v#v r#v A:V 94d t0!+, 5H5 555555 r5 A2 2  4 9ytoX>kd{G$$If94d ,Fj!H rA t0!((((2 2  44 9aytoXb$$If!v h5H5 5555555 r5 A#vH#v #v#v#v#v#v#v r#v A:V 94S t0!+, 5H5 555555 r5 A2 2  4 9ytoX>kdK$$If94S ,Fj!H rA t0!((((2 2  44 9aytoXb$$If!v h5H5 5555555 r5 A#vH#v #v#v#v#v#v#v r#v A:V 94d t0!+, 5H5 555555 r5 A2 2  4 9ytoX>kdN$$If94d ,Fj!H rA t0!((((2 2  44 9aytoXb$$If!v h5H5 5555555 r5 A#vH#v #v#v#v#v#v#v r#v A:V 94S t0!+, 5H5 555555 r5 A2 2  4 9ytoX>kdgR$$If94S ,Fj!H rA t0!((((2 2  44 9aytoXb$$If!v h5H5 5555555 r5 A#vH#v #v#v#v#v#v#v r#v A:V 94S t0!+, 5H5 555555 r5 A2 2  4 9ytoX>kd V$$If94S ,Fj!H rA t0!((((2 2  44 9aytoXb$$If!v h5H5 5555555 r5 A#vH#v #v#v#v#v#v#v r#v A:V 94d t0!+, 5H5 555555 r5 A2 2  4 9ytoX>kdY$$If94d ,Fj!H rA t0!((((2 2  44 9aytoXb$$If!v h5H5 5555555 r5 A#vH#v #v#v#v#v#v#v r#v A:V 94S t0!+, 5H5 555555 r5 A2 2  4 9ytoX>kdS]$$If94S ,Fj!H rA t0!((((2 2  44 9aytoXb$$If!v h5H5 5555555 r5 A#vH#v #v#v#v#v#v#v r#v A:V 94d t0!+, 5H5 555555 r5 A2 2  4 9ytoX>kd`$$If94d ,Fj!H rA t0!((((2 2  44 9aytoX$$If!vh5H5 5k5A#vH#v #vk#vA:V 94d t0!+,5H5 5k5A2 2  4 9ytoX$$If!vh5H5 5k5A#vH#v #vk#vA:V 94S t0!+,5H5 5k5A2 2  4 9ytoX$$If!vh5H5 5k5A#vH#v #vk#vA:V 94S t0!+,5H5 5k5A2 2  4 9ytoX$$If!vh5H5 5k5A#vH#v #vk#vA:V 94S t0!+,5H5 5k5A2 2  4 9ytoX$$If!vh505k5A#v0#vk#vA:V 9d t0!,505k5A2 2  4 9ytoX$$If!vh5H5#vH#v:V 9d t0!,5H52 4 9ytoXJ@J oXcke $1$a$ CJKH_HaJmH nHsH tHN@N oXh 1$$dBTJ@&5CJ,KH,\aJ,$A@$ ؞k=W[SOBi@B nfh?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\k#$%&'/014678@DEFGUVWZ\]^fklms{~    "#$%&+,-02349:;<=CDEHJKLQRSUVXY[abcdehjopqrxyz{|  "#$%&)+012389:;<?AFGHINOPQRUW\]^_klmnortyz{ % E l  < b o   ! 000 0 0 0 0 0 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 00 00 00 00 00 00 0 0 0 00000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  0  0  0  0 0 00F %/07r`emt)0_f%\k#$%&'/014678@DEFGUVWZ\]^fklms{~    "#$%&+,-02349:;<=CDEHJKLQRSUVXY[abcdehjopqrxyz{|  "#$%&)+012389:;<?AFGHINOPQRUW\]^_klmnortyz{ % E l  < b o   ! 000000 0 0 0 0 0 000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0 0 00 00 00 00 00 00 0 0 000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0000000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0000000000 0 000000000000 0 00000000000 0 00000000000 0 00000000000 0 0000000000000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 00000000000 00000000 000 00000000 000 00000000 000 00000000 000 00000000 000 00000000 000 00000000 000 00000000 00 0 00000000 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 00 04 0000 0 00000 0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  0  0  0  0 0 0 00 :(*,.>2 !'. ~`((`))2***j++,,,-4-P-j---x0>2  "#$%&()*+,-/>2 _Toc330294265! ! EFQS  $%.06;ABlmqr_bil{}(+/0IM^aef\jkrx"'.8?@CGT^efjmrsz!&*48=BLPSTVWYZ[`jnrw!+/37AEIMW[_jtx{  % @ E O Q g l   7 J ] b n o ! EF  $%.06;qr_`dflmsx()/0^_ef$)=[\jk"'.8?@CGT^efjmrsz!&*48=BLPSUVXY`jnrw!+/37AEIMW[_jtx{  $ % D E k l    ; < a b n o ! 7fm[\GW&_o  < b  ! ef=[! W@(/?yhh^h`o(. H\H^H`\hH) \^`\hH. \^`\hH. 4\4^4`\hH)  \ ^ `\hH. | \| ^| `\hH.  \ ^ `\hH) \^`\hH.hh^h`o(. H\H^H`\hH) \^`\hH. \^`\hH. 4\4^4`\hH)  \ ^ `\hH. | \| ^| `\hH.  \ ^ `\hH) \^`\hH.(/?WH        U         3/v1*Z{oXC\#$%&'/014678@DEFGUVWZ\]^fklms{~    "#$%&+,-02349:;<=CDEHJKLQRS[abcdehjopqrxyz{|  "#$%&)+012389:;<?AFGHINOPQRUW\]^_klmnortyz{ ! @[[[[( @@ @(UnknownGz Times New Roman5Symbol3& z Arial;[SOSimSun?5 z Courier New qho'Gw w !-!),.:;?]}    & 6"0000 0 000000 =@\]^([{  0 0 00000;[r   `HP?oX2SKYFREEUser  Oh+'0X   ,8@HPSKYFREE Normal.dotUser16Microsoft Office Word@V@(@i$)w ՜.+,0 X`x WWW.YlmF.CoM '   !"#$%&'()*+,-./023456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdeghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~Root Entry FQ()Data 1i1TablefWordDocument2`SummaryInformation(DocumentSummaryInformation8CompObjm  FMicrosoft Office Word ĵ MSWordDocWord.Document.89q